The electorate is more divided today than it has ever been. Here’s the breakdown:
On the Right there is the MAGA branch of the Republican Party. They are about 30% of the electorate.
On the Left there is the radical Left Progressives (AOC Types). They are also about 30% of the electorate.
The Republican Party cannot offend or disregard the Maga branch just as the Democrat Party cannot offend or disregard the Progressive Left. They cannot win elections of they do offend these core groups. The middle of the road, less Maga or less progressive people, in both parties are in the minority. They NEED these radicals left or right.
If either party offends the radical core group, they will cause a rift that will result in a weak third party. Think the greens or the libertarian. They are constant spoilers. Look at the Georgia Senate race. The libertarian vote would have put Walker in office.
Right now the mainstream Republicans (the 20%) are upset with Trump. There are calls from every side to ask him to go away. The problem is that he is still the most popular republican in America. If he were to defer it would open the door to several better options.
But here’s the bitter truth. IF he decides to run again, he will get the nomination and he will win the presidency. The maga group outvotes the 20%. The 20% will HAVE to vote for Trump in order to avoid a democrat win. There is no other choice. A direct confrontation from Youngkin or Desantis would divide the party and guarantee that whoever the democrats nominate will win. The stay at home or vote for a third party by the Maga group will kill any chance.
My desire to see a change because I see myself as more in the 20% doesn’t matter. If we don’t want a permanent democrat majority, we have to pray that Trump sees the light and steps aside. I don’t think he will and it is going to be catastrophic.
The division is deep but the 20% is trapped.
The same by the way on the other team, but I don’t care
about that. If the democrats were to run
a Josh Shapiro of PA, Phil Murphy of NJ or Roy Cooper of North Carolina they
would win in a landslide against anyone other than Trump. But the progressives wouldn't be happy.
So as much as I hate reality, there it is.
