Friday, December 31, 2004

2005 Predictions

Being accused of a Prophetic Bent, I offer these Prognostications for the year (or years) ahead:

The weather cycle we are in will become more intense. If it’s global warming or if it’s a natural long-term cycle it will become more intense. Things will change noticeably in 2005. Man cannot do anything about this. I’m not sure he ever could have. Learn to go with the flow, it’s coming. If you have ever studied Kondratieff you will understand that the breakout has happened. There’s no turning back.

The price of Oil and the shortages that will happen will produce two effects:

1. In 2005 somewhere in North America a significant find or development of an old find will have a dampening effect on the price of Oil in the future. It may be unconventional

2. Intense research on alternative fuels will mean that a viable breakthrough will take place soon. I don’t think it will be announced in 2005 but I do think the breakthrough will happen in 2005. This will be a one for one reciprocating engine fuel. I believe it will involve a volatile hydrocarbon component linked for stability with either a water or alcohol carrier, which will be deconstructed thru a catalyst before it is combusted like gasoline. We will fill this in our tanks like gasoline but it will need this pre “burner” to make it all work. This new synthetic fuel will change everything. I know this; we will not freeze in the dark or park our 57 Chevies. You read it here first.

there will be changes in world leadership:

A new Pope (that’s an easy guess)
A new Vice President (I don’t think he can keep this up)
The election in Iraq will be held, but it will not hold.
A cleric will become the Country’s leader eventually
Kofi Annan will step down at the UN. I don’t know who will take his place.
Alan Greenspan will be replaced
Three Supreme Court Vacancies will occur

There will be an attempt on President Bush’s life. I hope it doesn’t happen. I sure hope it doesn’t succeed. But the Devil Hates our President. Pray for him.

A year from now it will become apparent that Iraq is going to make it. It will be expensive and bloody but in the end it will have been worth it. We will not leave the area in my lifetime. Much blood has bought us the right and mandate to take up permanent residence.

The Tsunami devastated area will rebuild and be better than ever. In fact tourism will triple. The net effect will be more prosperity than ever would have been possible before this disaster. A horrible price to pay but this too shall pass.

Inflation will kick in. The political will to stop it isn’t there. It will be double what it is now by the beginning of 2006.

Commodity Prices will drift down as they always do. The world’s ability to respond to commodity shortage thru production will put a cap on the temporary high prices in the market. Watch particularly cattle.

Studies of suspect nature will continue to tell us that coffee, red meat, and chocolate are GOOD/BAD for us. Ignore them. All things in as much moderation as you can stand is good advice.

Legislative Predictions:
Social Security Reform --- Limited, much more limited
Income Tax Reform --- This has a chance
CIA etc Reform ---- Conceptually OK, disastrous in execution
Education Reform ---- Slower than before

All in all, 2005 will on balance be a good year.

Have a happy one

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