Monday, May 04, 2020

What will the TOTAL death toll be from CV-19. Excess deaths is all that matters.

 I have been tracking the total coronavirus deaths in the USA.  To post them all would not makes sense.  The exponent of increase at the beginning was over 2.  That means at the beginning the number doubled.. often.  As the total number of deaths increased the exponent of increase tapered off.  Part of it was the larger population of deceased people.  However if the virulence and death rate were consistent it should have shown little decrease.

Now we have hit a plateau.  One of about 2-4% increase per day.  Not 100% every day.  This is caused by a leveling of deaths.

To be sure, The number of deaths from all causes has increased but not nearly as much as the official numbers show.  This causes me to have doubts about the actual cause of deaths from CV-19 compared to all deaths.  This graph can help.

If there isn't a radical slowing of increases in deaths we very well could reach 100,000 or more by June 1.  I don't believe that will be just CV-19.  The lack of transparency of assigning people to actually die of the virus versus the virus was the last thing they had in their life of persistent age  or illness.

To be sure, for those of an age above 80,  the virus might well take off ten years they might have otherwise lived.

I offer this analysis based on actual numbers from the MEDIA (which makes it immediately suspect).  However since it is the numbers we are given,  we will extrapolate where this could head.  Full disclosure, I am convinced the REAL death count is about 50% of the one reported by authorities.  The CDC Page of this is available Here.

I know it all seems pretty daunting, but for those of us that work with numbers, the numbers tell the  story.  This much is true, the media and the governors and health officials in the USA have a reason to lie.  It confirms their existence.  When someone has something to gain,  doubt them severely.  I do.

Forget about new cases.  Thousands are confirmed every day and they aren't dying in droves.  Forget about contact tracing.  That is a political ploy meant to justify government's overreach.  The only indicator is excess deaths, and that is a small number.  

You will note that the exponent is predictably declining.  I am not so sure it isn't going to flatten quickly.  This much I know, we have had spikes in deaths from viruses before and didn't destroy our country.  We must never ever allow this to happen again.  Evil forces are taking advantage.


April      Death Total        Exponent of Increase                    Additional by day
23    47,992    1.05    ACTUAL    2,400
24    50,392    1.04    ACTUAL    2,016
25    52,407    1.03    ACTUAL    1,702
26    54,109    1.03    ACTUAL    1,439
27    55,548    1.03    ACTUAL    1,101
28    56,649    1.02    ACTUAL    2,487
29    59,136    1.04    ACTUAL    2,530
30    61,666    1.04    ACTUAL    2,467
1    64,133    1.02    ACTUAL    1,472
2    65,605    1.02    ACTUAL    1,312
3    66,917    1.02    ACTUAL    1,338
4    68,255    1.03    ACTUAL    2,048
5    70,303    1.02    PROJECTED    1,406
6    71,709    1.02    PROJECTED    1,434
7    73,143    1.02    PROJECTED    1,463
8    74,606    1.02    PROJECTED    1,492
9    76,098    1.02    PROJECTED    1,522
10    77,620    1.02    PROJECTED    1,552
11    79,173    1.02    PROJECTED    1,583
12    80,756    1.02    PROJECTED    1,615
13    82,371    1.02    PROJECTED    1,647
14    84,019    1.02    PROJECTED    1,680
15    85,699    1.015    PROJECTED    1,285
16    86,985    1.015    PROJECTED    1,305
17    88,289    1.015    PROJECTED    1,324
18    89,614    1.015    PROJECTED    1,344
19    90,958    1.015    PROJECTED    1,364
20    92,322    1.015    PROJECTED    1,385
21    93,707    1.015    PROJECTED    1,406
22    95,113    1.015    PROJECTED    1,427
23    96,539    1.015    PROJECTED    1,448
24    97,987    1.015    PROJECTED    1,470
25    99,457    1.015    PROJECTED    1,492
26    100,949    1.01    PROJECTED    1,009
27    101,959    1.01    PROJECTED    1,020
28    102,978    1.01    PROJECTED    1,030
29    104,008    1.01    PROJECTED    1,040
30    105,048    1.01    PROJECTED    1,050
31    106,099    1.01    PROJECTED    1,061
1    107,160    1.01    PROJECTED    1,060

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