The Light at the end of the Covid Tunnel

 

For those or us in Agriculture we are well familiar with Rapid spread disease in plants and animals. We are good at managing them. So when Covid came along, it was like any other disease moving thru a population.  I found this elementary explanation that might help you and then if you would read my comments at the end if will give you hope for the future:

Epidemics and Pandemics

What is an epidemic? An epidemic is when an unusually large number of people in a community get a disease at the same time. Examples of epidemic diseases include typhus, influenza, the Black Death, malaria, and smallpox.

 

What causes an epidemic?

There are a number of events that can cause an epidemic. Infected food and water - One way an epidemic can begin is if the food or water gets infected with a disease. If the local water supply of a city gets infected, then a number of people of the city will become sick, starting an epidemic.

 

Increased virulence of the disease - Sometimes the pathogen (germ) that causes a disease may change and become more virulent. This means that it can more easily infect people and make them sick.

 

Introduction of a new disease - Many epidemics begin when a new disease is introduced to a population. This occurred when the Europeans brought smallpox to the Americas killing as much as 90% of the native population.

 

Lower resistance to a disease - Sometimes famine and poor nutrition can cause a population to have lower resistance to a disease causing an epidemic.

 

Natural disasters and wars - Natural disasters and wars can trigger the start of epidemics by causing infected water, bringing in new diseases, and lowering the resistance to disease of the population.

 

How does disease spread? Disease can spread and be transmitted a number of ways including the following:

 

Insects - Insects can carry diseases and transmit them from person to person. Examples of insect-borne diseases include the bubonic plague and malaria.

 

Airborne transmission - Infection can also travel through the air, usually when a person coughs or sneezes. Examples of airborne diseases include influenza, measles, and tuberculosis.

 

Foods and water - Some diseases can be spread through infected food or water. Examples include cholera, dysentery, and typhoid fever.

 

How do they end?

Even though epidemics can spread quickly and kill millions of people, they eventually do come to an end. There are different reasons why an epidemic may end:

 

Fewer hosts - When an epidemic first starts out it can attack the weakest and most susceptible people. These people may die or survive. If these people survive they may build up immunities to the disease. Over time, the disease finds fewer and fewer hosts it can easily attack. Eventually the epidemic slows down and comes to an end.

 

Seasonal - Some diseases are seasonal. The flu, for example, is spread more easily during the winter and tends to die out come spring time.

 

Fewer carriers - Sometimes the carriers of the disease may become inactive. An example of this is malaria that is transmitted by mosquitoes. Mosquitoes become inactive during the cold weather or winter.

 

What is a pandemic? A pandemic is an epidemic that has spread across a large region, typically across multiple continents or worldwide.

 

MY COMMENTS:

The note of a difference between an Epidemic and Pandemic is the universality of the disease.  That is why Covid 19 is a Pandemic, a wide spread epidemic.  Not more virulent.

 

By the First of June of next year three things will have happened as outlined above.

 

First as people get sick and develop immunity the Herd becomes more and more immune.  The best way.

 

Second is the fact that the virus kills the most vulnerable until it runs out of people to infect that will die. The fact that very very few people under the age of 50 die and that the bulk who do die are those with comorbidity and age above 60.  That is a finite number.

 

Third is the vaccine.  While not everyone will take it, enough will, I will to very much slow the transmission.  I will confess I am not totally convinced if it’s efficacy, more placebo than protection perhaps, but I’m in. 

 

The three effects, the first two being most important give me confidenct that some level of normalcy will return by June.  How Normal, that depends on you and me.  We can live in fear of one another and never enjoy a hug, wear a mask even if it is not longer a big deal and stay home in stasis of near death.

 

Not for me.  I will live and not die. Live means LIVE!!