A Tipping Point Is Nearing in the US Economy

I am NOT a bear on the US economy, I am a realist with economic understanding that sees things that are not as they are being declared by Government and media. We are being lied to. The government is terrified of doing what needs to be done. The supposed revival of the economy we keep hearing about is based on a lie. The lie is, flood the economy with money and people will spend. That is happening, but it is all inflating a balloon to the tipping point.

Stock Markets are reacting to the steady drip drip drip of "good news". The truth would terrify people if they knew it.

The news says our unemployment rate is 10%. The truth is it's nearly 25%.

The news says inflation is 3%. The truth is inflation is over 10% right now and accelerating rapidly. Interest rates must reflect the true inflation rate or we end up with an inversion and distortion. When interest rates start to move toward true inflation rates the stock market must react. I watched it happen in 1975-1980. Carter 1. Now that we are in Carter 2 history repeats. The stock market retreated by almost 50% during those years. It will again. Look at the very long term chart. Up markets make higher highs and higher lows. I see a market that has made some higher highs but lower lows. This doesn't indicate powerful upward pressure. IF the inflation driven interest rates enter the market there is no question that the equities will drop in response as they always do. If my formulas are any sense that means a market in the 6000 range on the Dow, 700 on the S&P after the change. That will be a good place to take a position.

There is activity in Mergers and Acquisitions. Many of these are driven by money burning a hole in corporate pockets. Money from Quantitative easing. Some of these are simply stock swaps, two twenty five thousand dollar cats for a fifty thousand dollar dog.

AND there is consumer sentiment. There is such a steady drumbeat from politicians hoping to cover their rear ends and a compliant news media including Fox Business News and CNBC to propound the myths being offered.

There is no appetite for truth. People that express concern about the economy are shouted down by those who have bought the lies of the media and government doublespeak. They are ridiculed and pilloried.

Everyone is proclaiming peace peace but there IS NO PEACE.

IF you read this article you will grasp what I keep talking about. I am not alone, but I am in the minority.