MODELING

It looks as if the death rate from the virus is flattening fast.  I think we have seen the peak in exponential increase.

I don't know when it stops..  but at the current rate of increase.. if it doesn't fall more, we will lose about 70,000 by May 1.  I don't believe it will get there.

The exponent continues to decline. We have turned the corner

April
21    42,906    1.04 Actual
22    45,382    1.05 Actual
23    47,992    1.05 Actual
24    50,401    1.05 Actual
25    52,400    1.04 Actual Note exponent dropping
26    54,100    1.03 Actual
27    55,548    1.03 Actual
28    57,214    1.03 PROJECTED
29    58,931    1.03 PROJECTED
30    60,699    1.03 PROJECTED
1    62,520    1.03    PROJECTED
2    64,395    1.03    PROJECTED
3    66,327    1.03    PROJECTED
4    68,317    1.03    PROJECTED
5    70,367    1.03    PROJECTED
6    72,478    1.03    PROJECTED
7    74,652    1.03    PROJECTED
8    76,891    1.03    PROJECTED
9    79,198    1.03    PROJECTED
10    81,574    1.03    PROJECTED


I still doubt we will get this far