Wednesday, April 15, 2020

NOT GREAT NEWS

Today the exponent of increase spiked a bit.  Ten percent per day increase.  If that keeps up it's bad news.  Changes a lot.  But the statistic up till the 15th are actual number of deaths.  The size of the exponent changes everything. Let's hope it stays down.   Might be an anomaly.

10    16693    1.12
11    18771    1.12
12    20473    1.1
13    22106    1.08
14    23649    1.07
15    26061    1.1 (actual, spiked exponent)

If nothing changes in % of increase
16    28,667    1.1 28,579 actual
17    31,534    1.2 34,784 actual??  I have doubts about this number.  New York is fabricating
 numbers.  The additions they made from any death is a CV death has distorted the picture.  Suddenly the death toll was increased

18    34,687    1.1
19    38,156    1.1
20    41,972    1.1
21    46,169    1.1
22    50,786    1.1
23    55,864    1.1
24    61,450    1.1
25    67,596    1.1
26    74,355    1.1
27    81,791    1.1
28    89,970    1.1
29    98,967    1.1
30    108,863    1.1
May 1    119,750    1.1  Would be a staggering number.  I don't believe it.. but important to know.

I am still convinced it rolls off at around 40,000.  The worst is over.

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