Monday, June 18, 2007

North Dakota is smaller than Siri Lanka

In a way to understand the tremendous vitality of the US Economy and it’s relative strength to the rest of the world there is some good news in a recent study for Americans but bad news for North Dakotans.

Here is a report on this study, it’s a little hard to understand but if you dig deeply you will see some of these truths:

  • The US Economy is 13.2 trillion dollars in GNP. The next closest rival is Japan at 4.4 trillion. Then Germany at 2.9 trillion. (That means in 60 years Iraq’s GNP should be in today’s dollars, 5 trillion since war conquests always prosper).
  • California’s GNP of 1.7 trillion is the same size as Italy.
  • Texas at 1 trillion is the same size as Brazil.
  • New York at 1 trillion is about the same size as Russia.
  • That puts things into perspective. The US economy is so overwhelmingly large it dwarfs all others
  • That would be good news if you were from California, Texas or New York.
  • What is so pitiful is North Dakota’s rank in GNP. Only Vermont is lower at 24 billion
  • North Dakota’s GNP at about 26.4 billion is about the same size as Siri Lanka
  • As a native Dakotan, and as a transplanted Illinoisan let me put the two by comparison into perspective. Illinois GNP is 663 Trillion. About the size of the Netherlands. Not big. Not small. That means with less land area Illinois is 25 times the size of ND in GNP. Do the math. It’s all about population. I have maintained for a very long time that economic development is about attracting people pure and simple. People who will come and live and work. The base economic development unit is the individual.

In Illinois we have a lot of inner city people who are not direct contributors to our GNP. That might mean that on a per capita basis the GNP of Illinois folks would be less than ND. NOPE. The GNP per capita in North Dakota is $4187.50. Illinois it’s $5304.80. That means even factoring in the non contributors Illinois is still 23% more GNP productive than ND. I was surprised. I always thought of North Dakotans as hard workers. Maybe the farming welfare queens is more the case. There is no GNP from welfare.

One other factor to consider. If from time to time as a state North Dakota feels just a little “Left Out” or ignored, there’s a reason. It’s economic impact is significant
only in it’s absence. If North Dakota disappeared off the face of the earth tomorrow along with it’s 640,000 people the US economy would HARDLY suffer even a blip. It’s like when Katrina hit New Orleans there was concern what the impact this would have on the US economy. At the time I said it would have ZERO effect. I was lambasted but in the end it has had nearly none.

The USA is such a huge economy that we can take pretty big hits. Even the Iraq war in its war spending is almost negligible in the overall scheme of things. That’s why President Bush is able to cut taxes and still prosecute the war with aggressive intent. We can afford it financially.


I think the big message is for the State of North Dakota is cut taxes, scale back services, make the government leaner. That alone would do much for the growth of the state. When the state had a surplus to spend it spent is in less than wise ways. If I had been KING (a scenario you might not enjoy) I would have:

  1. Fund infrastructure in Small Towns selected for growth. Hospitals. Ambulance.
  2. Make Higher education in Small ND colleges like Mayville virtually free. Offer ND scholarships good only at small schools who need students. Educate and keep young people in the state. NDSU, my ALMA MATER is big enough. They continue to grow and the others languish. Educate nearly free in VO-Tech. Create a home grown well educated cadre and give them something to do.
  3. STOP ALL ASSISTANCE TO AGRICULTURE. I mean all. Ethanol and the rest. The quicker the agricultural community gets off the welfare roles and on to being productive the better. ND should not spend one red cent helping farmers. NOT ONE. Or if that's the idea they should begin helping video rental stores, shoe stores and restaurants. They don’t and they shouldn’t. Nor should they help farmers. IF ND agriculture fell off the map it wouldn’t be missed at all. Sorry folks it’s the truth.
  4. Implement Vouchers for education. Write checks. Don’t administer schools. Education is the biggest mess, it’s the post office and TSA all wrapped up in education. Stop any more public education at once.
  5. Make the pathways THRU North Dakota inviting. Beautiful rest stops along the interstates and major highway arteries open 365-24. Today ND is most uninviting at many of it’s rest stops. Allow private enterprise to participate. Use the rest stops and waysides to feature, promote, invite, inform, allure and advertise all that is good about North Dakota. Of the millions that drive THRU the state every year and see it as just a big flat nothing, let’s take a shot at telling them what it’s really all about. We never again have a chance to make a first impression as when they are traveling thru. Other states do this so well. Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois. ND looks pretty wimpy compared to this. We need to do better.

One other thing, and this is the hardest of all. North Dakota’s part of the US economy is 26.4 billion out of 13 trillion. North Dakota in perspective is 1/500th of the US economy. Drop in the bucket. Put into understandable terms, North Dakota’s influence on the US economy is roughly the same as the town of Stanley North Dakota’s influence on the whole state of North Dakota’s economy.

All in all, pretty paltry.

I don’t say all this to anger or discourage. I say all this to encourage ND lawmakers to start to push hard for economic development in North Dakota. I don’t know if they will. Stop spending on things that do no good. Start spending time on things that matter. The state is in continued decline. 10% of the population will dissapear in the next 10 years as my fellow baby boomers get older and the already aging population drifts off the face of the earth.

I don’t know if they will.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Somehow to say that Vermont is less of a state than Illinois is perverse. When the economies of all these populous places really get tuned up-then people from those states can come to Vermont and see what life might have been like without such "affluence".
Give me the values of Vermont thanks, and the economy too.
For those who believe or do not believe in evolution--we are evolving to extinction--not perfection-so slow down and enjoy the ride.

Steve Scott said...

Bill Gates is a bigger economy than some states.