A critical creative look at issues of Economics, Politics and Finding a Purpose in Life - Let's talk about it. I try to leave the woodpile higher than I found it.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Bankrupt USA
Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe that before the US goes bankrupt it will devalue the dollar and pay off its creditors with doodoo. Eg, it could pay my soc sec with $25000 that is worth $2500,ie, with dollars worth 10 cents.. The 800 billion Chinese debt will be worth 80 billion. Und so weiter. What will stock be worth? Ten times as much in dollars worth 10 cents on the dollar, in other words, the same. This is the advantage of being the debtor when you control the value of the money that will be used to repay the debt. Bernanke devalued the dollar by 1% last week. He has the authority and ability to devalue it 90%. The dollar is at a six month low. There is 1% inflation so, in general, this does not impact us. Chinese goods might become more expensive for Walmart and Target but this does not mean they will pass this hike on to the consumer. More likely China will sell the same goods for less and a Chinaman will get $9 a day instead of ten.The moral of this story is that you don't want to hold dollars if you think the US will go bankrupt. You should buy stock. I predict that China will buy much more from us next year to preserve its trade with us. It has announced that it will spend ten times as much on infrastructure as the US. It knows you have to feed the cow if you want to milk the cow. It will buy CAT, GE, und so weiter. I aint sellin. I believe we will grow out of our debt. I believe that corporations will double their earnings next year so I am in equities. I believe our GDP will expand dramatically as construction and employment start to come back. Our underground economy has surged during the Recession and is growing like topsy. Just try to get a table in a restaurant on the weekend.
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