Sunday, September 23, 2012

Professor's early call may be too early

 This professor claims to have accurately predicted the last 7 presidential elections:

I have modified his claims because of recent events...let's see if it holds or not.  MY COMMENTS IN ALL CAPS

In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency.
Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama.

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.
  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.   AGREED
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.  AGREED
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.  AGREED
  4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.  AGREED
  5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”  AGREED
  6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.]  AGREED
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.  DISAGREE, OBAMACARE AND MANY OF HIS POLICIES ARE VERY UNPOPULAR AND A REASON TO VOTE AGAINST HIM.
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.  DISAGREE...OBAMA 2016 AND OTHER THINGS IS STIRRING PEOPLE...AND THE OCCUPY PEOPLE ARE ALIVE AND WELL. 
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.  RELUCTANTLY AGREE...ALTHOUGH I THINK HE IS CORRUPT BEYOND BELIEF
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.  WHAT ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST IN FLAMES?  DISAGREE
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.  MAYBE..BUT NOT SO MUCH
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.]  AGREED
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.  AGREED
I'm counting 6 now.  Tossup...

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