“There are any number of explanations for what Trump is bringing out in
the electorate. But the most compelling explanation also, curiously,
gets the shortest shrift: He’s a celebrity candidate, and celebrity
candidates break election models. Jesse Ventura in Minnesota, Arnold
Schwarzenegger in California: these people bring out folks who don’t
normally vote. In a low-turnout election, or a badly divided field,
that’s enough to turn things in their favor. Celebrity candidate voters
aren’t normal voters. Normal voters care more about policy than normal
non-voters, care more about party identification, care more about
ideology. Simply trying to transfer analysis of normal voters over onto
the new people that celebrity candidates bring out to the polls doesn’t
work very well, because you’re searching madly for clues to things that
aren’t really there. This is why such candidates often surprise
political scientists by winning.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-04/the-four-horsemen-of-the-republican-apocalypse
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