Saturday, February 25, 2006

Tipping Point

I'm sure you have read Gladwell's "Tipping Point".  The idea that an issue or a circumstance pressures until it tips one way or another.  It's never one thing, it's a cumulation that results in a change.
 
I think we are seeing this played out before our very eyes:
 
1. Ports of Arabia.  The UAE company taking over Several American seaports.
This was a bad idea.  Politically a bad idea.  But, as the dust settles it appears that with a little modification this will happen.  The President is committed to it and now with a few days under my belt I'm prepared to let him do what he believes is right.  He played it until the tipping point hit and now he will get what he believes is right.  This is a case of an argument run to exhaustion and no longer works.  I need to trust him to do right more often.  I think he is smarter than he looks.
 
2. Iraq. I know the conventional wisdom is that Iraq is going to settle into a civil war and the sides will blow each other up.  I now believe a tipping point has been reached there as well.  This crisis as bad as it is will result in a strong man with a strong government backing taking control.  Oh, the sectarian hatred will continue.  It has lasted a long time.  But, Iraq recognizes that if it doesn't get this under control hell will break loose.  This will be led by the clerics. 
 
So, watch and see.  Those are my predictions.  They aren't much different from others in the past but I think there is room for hope.

1 comment:

Nodak Jack said...

So, "Mission Accomplished" is a reality or soon to be? Or is it as another infamous leader of a formerly great nation said, "..they're in their death throes."