I came into a great deal of money some years ago. I considered investing in "High Priced" land between 47 and Sycamore on IL 64. But, it seemed too far out of the loop so to speak to be worth much.
Meantime 7 years later a man I knew bought land for $6800 per acre. A wacky price. It was stupid. He just sold it for twenty grand an acre.
A few months ago Wheat broke $15 briefly on the fall delivery months and almost 10 in the July delivery month of 2009. I said on this blog that a sure thing was selling that far out wheat. I didn't.
Now all the absolutely classic overbought conditions are in commodities with oil leading the charge. None of the fundamentals can support this market. Fear and panic have driven prices to the point of pure insanity.
Oil should be $50 in 2002 dollars. It will be. That's all the fundamentals can support. Demand is dropping like a rock. Supply is coming on line faster and faster. Refining is increasing. The trend has to change. The cure for high prices is high prices.
Now would be a good time to stock up. Buy that big SUV for half price, get a nice motor home, maybe buy some cheap airline stock and go short a market basket of commodities.
The millions of acres underwater are peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Much will be replanted. The phony technologies will be eliminated.
OH, good times will not be here again, but they won't be as bad.
One other thing, as a long time commodity market guy, when markets badly overbought collapse it is it sudden and drastic. If it takes 3 years to go to new highs, it takes 3 months to hit new lows.
Look at the chart from the early 80's.
If I had the guts I'd have a million dollars. Know the song.
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