Sunday, February 06, 2011

Crain's Special Report: The graying of Chicago | In Other News | Crain's Chicago Business

The number of people 65 or older in the Chicago area will soar 65% to 1.7 million by 2030, estimates William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

That's less than the 78% increase expected nationally, thanks to immigration in Chicago. Still, about 1 in 6 people in the area will be 65 or older in 2030, compared with 1 in 9 today.

Few industries will escape the effects as a graying population puts the brakes on economic growth.

• Many retiring boomers will sell homes, increasing pressure on housing prices already depressed by the foreclosure crisis.

• They will need more medical care and rely on government insurance programs to pay for it, cutting into hospital profits and adding to the state's Medicaid bill.

• Their incomes will drop by about half, and their discretionary spending will shrink by about one-third. They'll spend more on prescription drugs but less on cars, appliances and restaurant meals.

• They'll pay less in taxes, worsening the revenue crunch governments at all levels face, while they consume more government services.

• Their retirements will cascade through the workplace, leaving employers short of skilled workers.

For the first time since boomers appeared on the scene 60-odd years ago, long-term economic growth will decelerate dramatically in Illinois.





Crain's Special Report: The graying of Chicago | In Other News | Crain's Chicago Business

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