"Of the sons of Issachar, men who understood the times, with knowledge of what Israel should do, their chiefs were two hundred; and all their kinsmen were at their command".
These men (and women I'm guessing) were somehow able to see past the myopia of the time and look out into the future with understanding to warn and advise Israel of what steps to take. That Sons of Issachar understanding is still among us. It is less prophetic, and more of embracing reality to face what is to come.
I am one of those Sons. You don't have to listen to what I say. I will offer you understanding from diagrams, charts and detail that will help you see what the decades to come will be like, what that will mean to you and your children and your children's children. This is based not on speculation but history. You have every right to ignore this, and many will, you have every right to think you can outsmart the trends, and for a while you can. You have no right to think that when times change you will be able to avoid the struggle to come.
An old adage says, "Forewarned is Forearmed". It's still true. Be prepared to be armed.
All economics goes thru cycles. Long cycles. Cycles based on innovation. Cycles based on booms and busts. Cycles based on human psychology. If we can understand these cycles, we can grasp what is happening in the world. Below is a chart showing these cycles for the last couple centuries. UPS and DOWNS. This is an old chart....look at how well it has defined our age.
Here is a Chart from the end of World War II till now. Long cycle. The last time it hit bottom in this time was in 1980 or so. We are about to go there again.
Here's another view of the same long term business cycle. If you see what is happening winter has set in. We are seeing very weak demand. Driven by a number of factors. Driven by economic disparity. People can't buy if they don't have any money. Too many people don't have any money to spend. We count on China and India. BUT, the same problem exists there.
You can see by the above long wave analysis and the one below that we are on the end of a long winter period. The end will be in the next ten years. Maybe less. Timing is imprecise. I can tell you what will happen, but not how fast. Government intervention can delay the impact of the cycle, but it cannot defer it. It can make it worse, as ours has, but it cannot make it much better. I don't blame President Obama any more than I blamed President Carter. They both did not want to be voted out of office because of an inexorable economic cycle. They did all they could do, but it isn't possible. President Reagan had the good fortune to come in just as the cycle had reached it's bottom. The chart below shows the absolute bottom of the Cycle in 2020. I tend to agree. IF we had allowed the banks and car companies to fail as they should have, we would be out of this by 2015-17. When you see the housing charts later, you will see what I mean.
The chart below and the one above agree as to the end of this. This Market will fool even those who seem to think they know what is going on. That's why there is liquidity in the market. People are constantly hoping and trying to find a place to put their money. The stock or bond market seems like a good bet. Short term, it can be...but it's a craps shoot.
And there is that pesky demographic wave. One where buying power retires. And those who didn't ride it are beached. Here's how the current generation sees the conundrum.
There was an interesting article written before the big crash of 2008. Demographic winter.
The oldest boomers ride the crest stepping off on relatively solid ground - buying the home Before houses are driven up in price; having the job that still offers retirement benefits; existing in an environment wherein an American could trust banks and save money. The middle boomers are a mixed bag, foaming in the surf, a struggling in an increasingly human being unfriendly environment. The later boomers come in after the houses are driven up, until most of us crash upon the shores of an America that has become almost violent for so many Americans.
We all knew another America. A beautiful thing that we were proud to me a part of - now? - not so much. It seemed to happen so fast?
Now few step off onto the shore while most crash in upon the steep, hard shoreline in the foam and most all of those behind face an ill landing at best.
True, as always and really in any system, the particularly lucky, clever and skilled surf the wave not only with alacrity but a real kind of joy.
Peace on them but hard to admire the skills when you're dog paddling ..
It's based on a proven theory by Harry S Dent, Jr. How demographic waves drive the markets. If I had responded well to his earliest book (The Great Boom Ahead) that I read in the mid 90's instead of Ron Blue's blue book, I would be a very wealthy man.
I will allow you to look up and read his books. I wish I had and heeded. He talks of how much money will be made when the turn comes. The premise is that people spend money by age. Young, some, Middle a lot, Old not so much. Here's a chart to help you. But there is much reading to be done to really grasp this.
BUT you'll always have your home, RIGHT? How about real estate. NOPE. A house if you own or rent is just a place to live. It's not an investment. It ceased to be in 2008 and won't be again for decades. In fact, if you own a home, it's value will deteriorate further than it already has. It must. The chart below is an inflation valuation analysis that shows what houses, homes, have been valued at for the last century plus. Sure, we have granite counter tops and running water, but as a part of economic component, it has always been about 100-120. We are STILL at a 140 value. Housing values must fall still. Once they hit equilibrium, there is very little upward pressure. 11% of all houses in America today stand empty. Demand is static. Home building will not return.
IF you examine the chart below which is the last decade, you will see housing values have dropped. THEN, leveled off. That's what government can do. It shouldn't. It should allow the market to find it's level. The intervention to help home buyers has only served to delay the inevitable, not derail it. Like cash for clunkers, it's a losing proposition when government gets involved. I don't blame them, they are looking for any port in a storm. It's just that the ports they keep finding are rife with rocks below the waterline.
About this time I always get this question. WHAT ABOUT GOLD? If you listen to talk radio, in addition to checking your credit, having your colon cleansed and beating your creditors, the number one thing to do is buy gold. Really? Sorry, gold is a sucker play. There are far better places to put your money if you want a hedge against inflation. Silver is OK. Copper is better. You need a marketable commodity with liquidity that has staying power. Gold is not that. I'm not going to get into a fight with the gold bugs, but Gold is volatile to the down side with little upside possibility (except if we have a war) and then only for a brief time. It's a sucker play. All the suckers are IN the gold market (yes I own some) but when the drop comes they will make it seem like a complete collapse. Here's a current chart of GOLD.
Not very reassuring when you consider the inflation adjusted valuations over the last 40 years or so.
IS THAT a bet you want to make? That somehow it's going off the charts? Go put all your money on RED on the Roulette Wheel at the casino, you'll have a better shot.
Look at this chart below. GOLD and STOCKS stink in comparison to other commodities. When the other commodities get too high as they are close to right now, the eventual collapse and deflationary pressures will set in as world economies contract in response. People without money can't buy our high priced corn or wheat. Look at Egypt. Look at Tunisia. We are in upheaval driven by economics.
What to do? I get that question all the time. There are opportunities. There will be. And in 2015-2025, when this whole mess finally settles out and stabilizes as it always does, there will be tremendous opportunities to make and create wealth in ways not yet imagined. The time to get in will be when it looks the worst.
Be prepared, be educated, be realistic, be optimistic without stars in your eyes, be alive, don't be discouraged; BE all of these and be well anchored.
Trust in God. There is no other place to put any hope. Don't trust politicians, business, your job, government. They are unable to help. Depend on the goodness of each other when times are hard. Create relationships. Create a network. Become part of the community and learn to help one another. Start a small business that when all around you falls apart you will be able to make a living. Develop a skill you can sell.
This is going to be a long slog, but the end will be much better than what you just left.
When this is all over, you will never look back to "when" and long for those days. The new day dawning will be so much greater than the former.
"The latter glory of this house shall be greater than the former, says the LORD of hosts. And in this place I will give peace, declares the LORD of hosts." Haggai 2:9
To spiritual leaders: Your greatest opportunities and greatest dangers will be in these times. It will be like Argentina during their economic crisis a couple decades ago. Great revivals, thousands in the door and no money to keep the heat on. Salvations and supernatural miracles everywhere you look but no way to hold a meeting; church buildings were foreclosed upon. Many established ministries will fail. Many new ones will prosper. This is a reformation. A badly needed reformation. An apostolic reformation; one I embrace. Those who listen to the prophets, hear the sons of Issachar and see the signs around them will prosper. Those who rely on baseless prosperity teaching without sound understanding will fail.
This is a new day that the Lord has Made....Rejoice and be glad in it.
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