The odds of Biden winning while carrying only three of seventeen bellwether counties, which average a 90% accuracy rate, are the same as rolling 17 10-sided dice and getting 13 ones. The odds of that are 197,281,461,461 to 1 against (197 billion to one).
Basically, if we had an election every month, Biden's win still wouldn't have happened during the entire lifespan of the universe.
Someone suggested that maybe the bellwethers were no longer good predictors, but even bad predictors would have more than three call it right. Even if they dropped to 50% accuracy, Biden should've gotten seven or eight of them, not just three. For him to even have a 25% chance of winning only three, the bellwethers would've had to drop from 90% accuracy to 20% accuracy, meaning they'd get four out of five races wrong instead of nine out of ten correct. That's probably even less likely than the 197 billion to one shot.
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