Friday, May 23, 2008

One of these things is not like the other

Sesame Street had a song that was to teach kids differentiation. ONE OF THESE THINGS IS NOT LIKE THE OTHER. Then they would show three or four items and little kids would say, Same or Different.

Now big kids that grew up on Sesame Street are not able to play the same game. Even when we see a long term pattern of things being like each other, they don't know how to spot it. Note that the price of oil trails in patterns of Homebuilding and the Nasdaq.

Every other commodity is coming off their highs. I wish I was gutsy enough as I mentioned a few weeks ago to put twenty grand in a sell account on a market basket of grain commodities. I would have a hundred thousand today. But I didn't.

Now the opportunity is here once again. But, where's the top? Whens the turn? Those are the questions that make heroes or fools of us all.

This much I know for certain. The Oil Doomsayers are wrong. Oil is poised for a HUGE fall. When, I don't know. But soon.

When everyone agrees on everything that is the beginning of the end of the bull market.

Bulls will stampede from Oil. Look at this chart. Its part of a much more comprehensive analysis from this man.

Now go fill up your tank and relax.




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