Any October Surprise will have to be a Genuine Surprise

You have been hearing expectations of an October surprise. Many think that the "Financial Crisis" is an October surprise. Some have been trying by the timely release of political ridicule movies. W and the Bill Mahr movies are attempts by the left to use idiot culture to define the election. The ones who might be persuaded by this ham handed effort weren't going to vote anyway.

Everyone is waiting for the watched pot to start boiling. It may not. Or might.

This article is a pretty good analysis of the situation. It reads in part:

From Obama's perspective, an October surprise may have begun a month early: The turmoil in U.S. financial markets that erupted in September triggered criticism of McCain's leadership and economic understanding, and polls showed Obama starting to open a lead in key battleground states.

That movement could be reversed in the two remaining presidential debates - or by a true October surprise.

Kerry said any surprise deliberately engineered by one of the campaigns would be a risky endeavor.

"I think the media has grown much more suspicious of it because of the recent experiences," he said, "so I suspect there'll be a lot of scrutiny and maybe even some backlash."