By the Numbers doesn't look good for Obama..unless

Let's look at the numbers:

All the people that voted in 2008 will NOT vote in 2012. The enthusiasm is gone. Crowds are smaller. That is a big deal. Read on and see why.

63% of all eligible voters voted in 2008. Fewer white, more black. 65% of all black voters voted. Normal turnout of black voters is 60%. More Asians and Hispanics voted but that is a function of numbers of voters, not turnout.

11.5% of all eligible voters in the USA are black. It's is a static number. Asians and Hispanic numbers are increasing. White voters are decreasing.

In 2008
96% of all black voters voted for Obama (12%) of the vote
67% of all hispanic voters voted for Obama (7.5%) of the vote
62% of asian voters voted Obama (2.5%) of the vote
55% of white voters voted Obama (76.3%) of the vote

Obama WON with 53% of the popular vote. McCain got 46%.

Here's the math problem for Obama in the upcoming election.

Normal turnout for Black voters is 60% (2008 was 66%). I suspect that will return to 60% this election. That will equal a 1% reduction in Obama's overall vote count. Not a greater turnout for Romney, just a lack of voting for Obama.

The Hispanic vote will turn towards Romney a bit equaling perhaps a half percent.
The Asian vote will turn for Romney a tiny bit as well, but again not enough to matter.

This boils down to the white electorate that is 76% of all voters who voted and white voters turn out about 67% (overall voter turnout is 64%)

There are distinct categories of white voters.

1. Hardcore conservatives who would NEVER vote for Obama. (I am one of those) 30% of the voter pool
2. Hardcore liberals who would Never vote for vote for Romey. 30% of the pool
3. Obama voters who now see that voting for Obama in 2008 was a mistake and will change back to Romney or not vote at all. Many were clergy.
4. Obama voters not well informed but will vote for him out of fear of being inconsistent.
   
5. Voters who really haven't made a decision...they are few. Undecided
6. Voters who DIDN'T vote in 2008 but will this year out of anger against Obama's policies. Many YOUNG people, new voters are in this group.
   
7. Obama voters who feel betrayed and will vote Romney rejecting Obama; like mine workers, physicians and businessmen who supported him in 2008 but won't now.
   

Numbers 1 and 2 are NOT going to change. They are granite solid.
Number 3 could mean a shift of 2% away from Obama. This is a big deal.
Number 4 is granite, not changing, you can't fix stupid. No influence
Number 5 will break even, not change at all. Undecideds go with the flow. Without core values.
Number 6 is a wild card. Even a 3% increase in angry new voters will make a difference. This should terrify the Obama camp.
Number 7 while smaller number can mean a 1% change.

If you look at all this, it's obvious what a candidate has to do. Get people ashamed of voting for Obama in 2008. Get the angry new voter. Keep the undecideds coming.

This will be a very close race. Turnout is everything. It's going to be hard, but the base is in place on both sides. The odds are against Obama, but not by much. It's no time to sleep.

We all need a little R&R.