Monday, January 07, 2008

Cheap oil if you buy it in Gold.

The Wall Street Journal's good article last week about the price of oil and gasoline in real dollars was pretty well written.

From that Article:

Since 2001 the dollar price of oil and gold have run in almost perfect tandem (see nearby chart). The gold price has risen 239% since 2001, while the oil price has risen 267%. This means that if the dollar had remained "as good as gold" since 2001, oil today would be selling at about $30 a barrel, not $99. Gold has traditionally been a rough proxy for the price level, so the decline of the dollar against gold and oil suggests a U.S. monetary that is supplying too many dollars.


What that means in real terms is we don't have high priced oil, we have a cheap and cheapening dollar. This isn't good news in the short term.

But, as the world turns with a 13 trillion dollar economy kicking in we will reverse the trend and you will see gold retreat as it always does, dollar recover from here as it always does, and the Euro retreat.

The Doomsayers are wrong.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ya do know Gene that this was a big point Ron Paul made in one of the last debates…

Anonymous said...

Gostei muito desse post e seu blog é muito interessante, vou passar por aqui sempre =) Depois dá uma passada lá no meu site, que é sobre o CresceNet, espero que goste. O endereço dele é http://www.provedorcrescenet.com . Um abraço.

Gene said...

RBB
Just because Ron Paul said it, it doesn't neutralize the situation.

The truth is the truth.

Paul or no Paul

Anonymous said...

Oh, sorry Gene...I should have included - I agree



I see our fine level headed, big picture, big tent gop friends at SA are not taking to Mr. Huckabee as of yet. How are you weathering the boys’ attacks?
I (unfortunately) went off on one of them the other day. Kinda wish I hadn’t. But I did. Kinda wish I had gone with slightly different wording. But I didn’t. Live and learn. Like it or not they are the perceived heart and soul of the gop. Pleasant thought, huh. Is there time to register independent?

Today was the first day back from our 2 weeks off. Oh well, hands to work – hearts to God. How are you? Hope your son is doing well. How’s your HP? Good luck huck tomorrow.