Monday, April 21, 2008

Blowing Thru versus teetering

When oil made a big move in price a couple years ago it blew thru resistance. 60-70 and 80 dollars.

When it reached a point where it no longer had momentum it teetered. Moved up, retreated, moved up retreated. Made a new high, but percentage wise an anemic new high.

This
usually is the pattern as it tries to establish a trading range. The problem is bad news can cause upward spikes that can't hold.

We've had some speculative bad news unrelated to the real oil supply situation. In fact globally we have had recent discoveries that are huge and as they come on line will have a big affect.

Yes there are political issues and they hammer the price of Oil. But, when you look at it all for real you start to realize
pinnacle's are unstable. Prices start to teeter.

And then they fall.

If you have read this blog for a while you know I am bearish on oil. Too much out there.

The gold bugs are teetering too and the euro owners are beginning to ask how far can the
dollar fall. They are looking for ways to prop it up.

They will and when they do viola or some such instrument, things will begin to reverse.

Particularly as in the next few months all the really bad news in the economy washes
thru and we discover that the end of the world has been canceled or at least put off till much later.

I'm optimistic. Look up, your redemption
drawth nigh and the oil prices you see up there won't hold forever.

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