Monday, February 23, 2009

Stock Market Wisdom

The market fell a lot today.

The further it falls, the more certain and intense will the rally be when it comes.

It's all psychology.

When the market starts to go north for whatever reason, the market will suddenly seem cheap. People will think they will miss the bottom if they don't buy in now. Money will be looking for a safe haven. Piling on will start. Irrational optimism will replace irrational pessimism. The market will zoom up. Probably to 10,500-11,000. Then caution will take over at those levels. Market will level. Bad news will hit at some point and....

The problem is, it won't and can't stay. The psychology can't sustain it. This will be a mini Kondratiev blow off and a crash once more.

The decline will happen for real and for a long time stay there (years, maybe a decade), Winter is here marketwise.

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